While Europe credits immigrants for economic recovery, the U.S. is bleeding vital labor—and the global consequences are starting to show.
Magazine, The Immigrant Experience
At this year’s Jackson Hole symposium, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde delivered a rare truth in the language of central bankers: Europe’s recovery didn’t happen on interest rates alone. It happened because immigrant workers helped make it possible. Her message was unflinching: Germany’s GDP would be 6 percent lower without them. Spain’s bounce back depended heavily on foreign-born labor. Even in Japan, where immigrants make up just 3 percent of the workforce, they powered half of recent labor-force growth.
Meanwhile, the United States is heading in the opposite direction.
Since January 2025, America has lost 1.2 million foreign-born workers. That’s not a forecast. It’s a fact. According to the Latin Times and corroborated by independent research, the immigrant labor force is shrinking, not expanding—a reversal with sharp economic and social consequences. And according to the Center for Immigration Studies, the total foreign-born population fell by 2.2 million in just six months. These are record-setting declines.
But the human story behind the numbers is even more telling.
The Disappearing Workforce
In places like California’s Central Valley, farms can’t find enough workers to harvest crops. A recent study estimates that farm labor shortages will cost $3 billion to $7 billion in lost produce and drive up prices by 5 to 12 percent. Grocery costs are climbing, not just because of inflation, but because of labor gaps that leave food rotting in fields.
In construction, contractors in states like Texas and Florida are delaying projects due to worker shortages. Some firms report turning down jobs because they don’t have enough labor to meet demand. Home prices climb. Timelines stretch.
In elder care, nursing homes and in-home services are struggling to meet demand. A graying population needs more caregivers, not fewer—yet the very workers who fill these roles are being deported, blocked by visa caps, or deterred by hostile policy environments.
How Americans Are Affected
The economic implications are enormous. The labor shortage is already dragging on growth. In July, only 73,000 jobs were added nationwide—far below expectations. Participation among immigrant workers fell sharply, particularly among non-citizens. Employers in agriculture, hospitality, construction, and health care are raising wages to compete for a smaller pool of workers, and those increased labor costs are passed down to consumers.
It’s a simple chain reaction: fewer workers means lower output. Lower output means higher prices. Higher prices mean economic pain.
And contrary to the persistent myth, these jobs aren’t being snapped up by American-born workers. The labor market data show that even with millions of job openings, many positions remain unfilled. Native-born workers are not rushing into strawberry fields, janitorial shifts, or nursing homes. These aren’t fallback jobs; they are critical roles in the infrastructure of daily life.
How Immigrants Are Affected
For immigrants, the current climate is more than hostile—it’s untenable. Enforcement has ramped up across the country. ICE raids are back in force. Fear is pushing families to relocate, leave jobs, or vanish from census rolls altogether. Communities are being hollowed out not because people are leaving for better opportunities—but because they are being pushed out.
Legal immigration isn’t immune. Visa backlogs stretch months or even years. Refugees and asylum seekers face increasing restrictions. Guest worker programs are so entangled in red tape that employers are left in limbo.
This hostile climate undermines not only the lives of immigrants, but the vitality of every community that depends on them. Schools lose students. Churches lose congregants. Small businesses lose customers and employees. It is a slow-motion unraveling.
A Global Crisis with American Roots
What’s happening in the U.S. isn’t isolated. Across the world, immigration policy is contracting, even as the need for labor expands. Canada has begun limiting permanent resident admissions. The U.K. tightened family reunification rules and cut student visa pathways. Australia has slashed its skilled migration quotas. Even countries in the Global South are feeling the pressure, with remittance flows weakening and young workers blocked from the very mobility that once uplifted entire communities.
And here lies the paradox: nearly every developed nation is aging, understaffed, and economically fragile—yet the prevailing political instinct is restriction, not renewal.
If the U.S. once exported a model of aspiration and openness, it is now exporting a playbook of exclusion. Trump’s first presidency normalized raids, deportations, and visa crackdowns. That posture is now echoed across Europe, where governments increasingly frame migrants as burdens, not builders. Even as Lagarde made the case for immigrant labor, many of her political peers push for tighter borders and stricter controls.
This mutual reinforcement between U.S. and European politics isn’t coincidence. It’s a feedback loop of fear: the more one region tightens, the more others follow suit.
The Cost of Global Contraction
What does this look like in practice? Slower global growth. Fragile supply chains. Rising care deficits. Fewer workers means fewer taxpayers, fewer caregivers, fewer innovators.
The International Monetary Fund has warned that demographic decline is a major drag on long-term productivity. The World Bank notes that migration, if managed well, is among the most powerful tools for poverty reduction and economic balance.
And yet, the political will to build those pathways is weakening.
As developed nations close their doors, emerging economies lose not only remittances, but opportunities to integrate. The global south becomes both source and victim of economic stagnation.
What Must Change
We need a wholesale reframing of how we view immigration—not just in America, but globally:
- Policy must align with demographic and economic need. Visa caps and work authorizations must reflect labor shortages across borders.
- Protect and stabilize migrant communities. Stability increases productivity. Dignity drives innovation.
- Create multilateral migration agreements. Coordination between countries can manage flows while protecting rights.
- Invest in integration, not just enforcement. Language access, housing, job placement—these aren’t luxuries. They are stability mechanisms.
- Elevate immigrant voices in policy design. People should not be debated in absentia.
A National and Global Reckoning
The U.S. is at a turning point. So is the world. We can continue the politics of exclusion and suffer slower growth, higher prices, and broken communities. Or we can choose inclusion, and see immigration not as a problem to solve, but a partnership to build.
If Lagarde can say it aloud in a room full of central bankers, surely we can say it here: Immigrant labor doesn’t threaten our future. It makes that future possible.
And that’s not just true for America. It’s true for every economy trying to rise, rebuild, or recover in a world that won’t wait.
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