Ethnic media and experts gather for a sobering briefing on the nation’s demographic time bomb—and what it signals for our economy, families, and future.
Magazine, The Immigrant Experience
With birthrates plummeting and immigration slowing, experts at an ACOM briefing warn that America may face long-term population decline, affecting everything from Social Security to family structures.
What happens when a nation stops growing? At a recent ethnic media briefing hosted by American Community Media (ACOM), experts confronted this pressing question head-on. The session titled “America’s Incredibly Shrinking Population” addressed the risks of declining fertility rates, aging demographics, and reduced immigration—a trio of trends reshaping the American future.
Sunita Surajbi, editor at ACOM, opened the session with a stark reality check: “The United States is edging toward population decline.” Birthrates are at historic lows. The population is aging rapidly. And immigration—long the engine of U.S. population growth—is slowing due to policy and social headwinds. If these trends persist, the country could see a population drop to 226 million by 2100, according to U.S. Census Bureau projections.
To unpack the implications, ACOM convened three leading voices: Dr. Ana Langer, Director of the Women and Health Initiative at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health and Professor Emerita in the Department of Global Health and Population; Anu Madgavkar, McKinsey Global Institute Partner with expertise in global labor markets and demographics; and Dr. Philip Cafaro, associate professor of philosophy, Colorado State University, whose work explores ethics, sustainability, and immigration policy. Each brought a distinct lens to the issue—health, economics, and ethics.
Dr. Langer spoke on the roots of fertility decline. Globally, fertility has dropped from five children per woman in 1970 to 2.2 today. The United States follows that pattern, dropping from 3.5 to 1.6 in just over six decades. Latin America, Asia, and even regions like Sub-Saharan Africa are seeing similar trends.
What’s behind this? Langer outlined a complex web of causes. Rising childcare and housing costs, lack of work-life balance, and growing gender inequalities contribute to delayed or forgone parenthood. Women in particular are facing hard choices between economic stability and family life. A growing segment of the population is also choosing not to have children, citing climate anxiety, economic precarity, and shifting social norms.
Crucially, immigration—once America’s demographic safety net—is no longer playing its traditional role. Langer pointed to global parallels, notably China, where the end of the one-child policy failed to lift fertility rates. Despite state-led incentives like cash grants, tax breaks, and extended leave policies, China’s fertility has dropped to record lows. Cultural and economic barriers to childbearing remain stubbornly in place. “Once fertility declines, it’s very difficult to reverse,” Langer warned.
Anu Madgavkar of the McKinsey Global Institute shifted the conversation to economics. She painted a sobering picture of what population decline means in practice. As the number of retirees rises and the working-age population shrinks, economies lose momentum. GDP growth slows. The “dependency ratio”—how many workers support each retiree—will drop from four to two by 2050 in the U.S.
This has tangible consequences: strained Social Security funds, rising healthcare costs, and increased public spending to support aging populations. Madgavkar emphasized that while depopulation might sound distant, its effects are already visible. Countries like Japan and South Korea are deep in the demographic transition. Others—including the U.S., much of Europe, and large parts of Asia—are next.
So what can be done? Madgavkar highlighted the role of innovation. Automation and AI could help close labor gaps, but only if governments and industries invest in workforce development. More than half of current work hours in the U.S. have the potential to be automated. But adoption is slow, and displaced workers must be retrained to handle AI-enhanced roles. “It’s not about eliminating jobs,” she said. “It’s about transforming them.”
Ethnic media participants raised pointed, culturally grounded questions. Lilia Gallindo of Cafe Con Leche asked whether current immigration policies are racially biased—favoring European over non-white immigrants. Langer acknowledged that while she couldn’t speak authoritatively on immigration policy, patterns of racial preference warrant serious scrutiny.
Cesar Nakum asked about fertility among immigrant communities. Dr. Langer noted that while immigrant families often begin with higher birthrates, these tend to converge with national averages over time. Second-generation immigrants, in particular, adopt the same economic and cultural patterns that suppress birthrates nationwide.
Diana Martinez raised a broader cultural concern: What happens to family-based safety nets when families shrink? In many immigrant cultures, large families provide care, connection, and economic resilience across generations. As fertility declines, those support systems fray. Both Langer and Madgavkar stressed that societies must now consider policy mechanisms to replace what once came naturally: intergenerational care.
The conversation closed with a consensus: The U.S. is entering uncharted territory. Reversing population decline is unlikely. Managing it—through equitable immigration reform, strategic economic planning, and robust social supports—is imperative.
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